Economic Outlook Conference 2019

Fissures & Fault Lines

June 3-5, 2019

|

Wilmington, DE

register now

What are the risks and opportunities facing your business? Join us as we share forward-looking insights and best practices to help you effectively prepare for change.

Our Economic Outlook Conference will cover the impact of the global, macro and regional economies on housing, credit, auto, labor, real estate, fiscal policy and emerging markets, as well as critical issues such as CECL and climate change.

demo stations

Gain insight from Moody’s Analytics experts on key enhancements to our products and solutions and our newest thought provoking concepts.

NETWORKING

Meet peers from over 75 financial institutions to exchange ideas and forge new relationships.

Keynote Speakers

Mark Zandi
Chief Economist

MOODY'S ANALYTICS

Kent Smetters
Boettner Chair Professor

Wharton — University of Pennsylvania

Victor Calanog
Chief Economist & Senior VP

REIS, INC.

Agenda

5:00 Pm to 7:00 Pm

WELCOME RECEPTION

8:00 am to 8:45 am

Registration

8:45 am to 9:00 am

WELCOME

Gus Harris, Executive Director, Moody's Analytics

9:00 am to 10:15 am

oPENING ADDRESs

Past its prime

Despite a wobbly start to 2019, the US economy should hold firm assuming several geopolitical threats, including the Trump trade war and Brexit, play out reasonably gracefully. However, beyond this year, things looks to be more challenging.

Mark Zandi, Managing Director - Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics

10:15 am to 10:45 am

Break & Demo stations

DEMO STATIONS

10:15 am to 10:45 am

Data Buffet & API

See first-hand the tools that enable users to find, graph, map, schedule, and export data from Moody's Analytics comprehensive economic and demographic database, containing national and sub-national forecasts.

Regulatory

This demo will cover CCAR, IFRS 9/CECL, and solutions based on loan level data: Portfolio Analyzer and Equifax Loan Level Data and Models. Both solutions can be tailored to a client’s needs.

REIS (CRE)

Learn more about Moody’s Analytics breakthrough quantitative scoring standard that transforms the way commercial locations are evaluated.

Scenario Studio

In this demo we will show how to build custom global, U.S., and U.S. regional scenarios using Scenario Studio, highlighting the transparency, audit, and productivity features embedded in the application.

Innovation Zone

Learn more about Moody's Analytics new solutions and thought leadership, including the following topics: CECL, Balance Sheet Forecasting, Macro Model Monitoring, and more!

breakout sessions

10:45 AM TO 11:45 AM

Tectonic Shifts in the Global Landscape

Political tensions and economic imbalances are putting pressure on the global economy. In the West, nationalism is eroding support for the free movement of goods and labor while hampering cooperative solutions on global policy challenges. Meanwhile, the changing structure of China’s economy, rising levels of debt in the region and shifts in monetary policy in the West all generate risks to the Asia-Pacific economy.

Speakers:

Steve Cochrane
Senior Director - Chief APAC Economist, Moody's Analytics

Mark Hopkins
Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Consumer Credit on the Sidelines

As the recession talks intensify despite mixed news about the economy, lenders and consumers alike brace their books as they wait on the sidelines.

Despite heightened suspense about the health of some of the consumer credit lines of business such as Auto, Student Loans, and Bankcards, there is really not

much to worry about in these sectors except for the credit performance of some sub-segments.

Speaker:

Deniz Tudor
Director - Consumer Credit Analytics,
Moody's Analytics

Multifamily Market Outlook

Multifamily has performed better than most property types since the end of the last recession. However, there is much discussion of how late stage supply growth has been constraining further rent growth and occupancy improvements. What are the drivers behind multifamily fundamentals, what risks may be mounting, and what should we expect over the near term? This discussion will cover these topics given Fannie Mae's deep involvement in the sector.

Speaker:

Kim Bentancourt                         
Director of Economics & Market Research, Fannie Mae

11:45 am to 12:45 pm

lUNCH & LEARN ROUNDTABLES

Information coming soon!

12:45 PM TO 1:45 PM

Over, Did the FED Say Over?

The Federal Reserve has pressed pause on this tightening cycle for the foreseeable future, and it almost sounded like the central bank believes it’s over, or very close to it. Though the Fed has pivoted, it is adapting to recent developments in financial markets, heightened downside risks to the outlook, and absence of inflationary pressures. Being patient and pausing this cycle within the range of estimates of the long-run neutral rate is appropriate, and could extend the life of this expansion. The Fed has killed its fair share of expansions but likely not this one. This session will discuss our expectations for the path of interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet, potential changes to the central bank’s policy frame work and their response if something goes wrong in the economy.

Speaker:

Ryan Sweet
Director - Real Time Economics, Moody's Analytics

CECL: Day 1 and Beyond

Our experts explore the potential impact of CECL on industry-wide reserves and factors that will affect results at the institution level. We also take a deep-dive into mortgages to provide insights how CECL will impact lending and pricing strategies.

Speakers:

David Fieldhouse
Director - Consumer Credit Analytics, Moody's Analytics

Shuying Shen
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

Changing Demographics and Their Impact on CRE

While many have debated the impact of millennials on the apartment and housing market, few have recognized that senior citizens are still the dominant age group in the population. This session will discuss how every age group has affected the economy and the apartment and housing markets. Details include labor force participation findings as well as student debt data.

Speakers:

Barbara Byrne Denham Senior Economist, REIS    

1:45 Pm to 2:00 Pm

Break & Demo stations

DEMO STATIONS

1:45 pm to 2:00 pm

Data Buffet & API

See first-hand the tools that enable users to find, graph, map, schedule, and export data from Moody's Analytics comprehensive economic and demographic database, containing national and sub-national forecasts.

Regulatory

This demo will cover CCAR, IFRS 9/CECL, and solutions based on loan level data: Portfolio Analyzer and Equifax Loan Level Data and Models. Both solutions can be tailored to a client’s needs.

REIS (CRE)

Learn more about Moody’s Analytics breakthrough quantitative scoring standard that transforms the way commercial locations are evaluated.

Scenario Studio

In this demo we will show how to build custom global, U.S., and U.S. regional scenarios using Scenario Studio, highlighting the transparency, audit, and productivity features embedded in the application.

Innovation Zone

Learn more about Moody's Analytics new solutions and thought leadership, including the following topics: CECL, Balance Sheet Forecasting, Macro Model Monitoring, and more!

2:00 PM TO 3:00 PM

Could the U.S. Economy's Key Support Crack?

Growth in consumer spending will continue to slow and there are many downside risks. This session will examine the current fundamentals for consumer spending and identify the key risks, including the labor market, more modest gains in household wealth and political risks. While counting the U.S. consumers out is a dangerous call, consumers will face weaker fundamentals going forward.

Speaker:

Scott Hoyt
Senior Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Captial Planning, CECL for Small Banks

The regulatory and accounting landscapes are in the midst of significant flux.  Though regulatory stress test requirements have been eased for small banks, the introduction of CECL means that these institutions need to increase their attention to analytical solutions.  In this presentation we will describe ways banks can adopt low cost, high power solutions to help them plan capital requirements.  We will also demonstrate a new approach to CECL calculation based on low-cost public data sources.

Speakers:

Tony Hughes
Managing Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Ed Young
Senior Director - Advisory Services, Moody's Analytics

Tech Disruption in CRE

Speaker: TBD

3:00 Pm to 3:30 Pm

Break & Demo stations

DEMO STATIONS

3:00 pm to 3:30 Pm

Data Buffet & API

See first-hand the tools that enable users to find, graph, map, schedule, and export data from Moody's Analytics comprehensive economic and demographic database, containing national and sub-national forecasts.

Regulatory

This demo will cover CCAR, IFRS 9/CECL, and solutions based on loan level data: Portfolio Analyzer and Equifax Loan Level Data and Models. Both solutions can be tailored to a client’s needs.

REIS (CRE)

Learn more about Moody’s Analytics breakthrough quantitative scoring standard that transforms the way commercial locations are evaluated.

Scenario Studio

In this demo we will show how to build custom global, U.S., and U.S. regional scenarios using Scenario Studio, highlighting the transparency, audit, and productivity features embedded in the application.

Innovation Zone

Learn more about Moody's Analytics new solutions and thought leadership, including the following topics: CECL, Balance Sheet Forecasting, Macro Model Monitoring, and more!

3:30 PM TO 4:30 PM

Housing Market: Keeping the Recovery in Ownership on the Rails

Starting in 2016, the share of home ownership among households started to trend upward for the first time since last decade’s mortgage lending bubble. However, there are still some substantial hurdles to increasing the share of home ownership beyond the pre-2000 historical average. These barriers include falling purchase affordability, relatively high rental burdens, and an incomplete recovery in the balance sheet of potential first-time home buyers. This presentation will discuss the upside and downside risks to the outlook for home ownership and the overall flow of home purchases over the next decade.

Speaker:

Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Leveraging IFRS 9 Learnings for CECL Implementation: Scenarios & Credit Models

This session will dive into the main challenges and learnings from IFRS 9; aiming to leverage the key takeaways to prepare for a successful CECL implementation. We will go through a list of technical topics where the overlap of the two accounting frameworks is most relevant: First, the use and severity of macroeconomic scenarios is a key area of industry debate. Second, the granularity and sophistication of credit loss models is also pivotal and will be discussed in great detail. Avoiding some of the mistakes from early IFRS 9 adoptions can be of great value to the success of our CECL journey.

Speaker:

Juan Licari
Managing Director - Chief Int'l Economist, Moody's Analytics

U.S. Government Policy Impact on CRE

Government policy holds huge implications for the performance of the overall economy and commercial real estate (CRE) market. What impact has policy had on recent CRE performance, what’s currently happening, and what are the implications for CRE in the future?

Speaker:

Ryan Severino Chief Economist, JLL

4:30 Pm to 4:45 Pm

Break & Demo stations

DEMO STATIONS

4:30 pm to 4:45 Pm

Data Buffet & API

See first-hand the tools that enable users to find, graph, map, schedule, and export data from Moody's Analytics comprehensive economic and demographic database, containing national and sub-national forecasts.

Regulatory

This demo will cover CCAR, IFRS 9/CECL, and solutions based on loan level data: Portfolio Analyzer and Equifax Loan Level Data and Models. Both solutions can be tailored to a client’s needs.

REIS (CRE)

Learn more about Moody’s Analytics breakthrough quantitative scoring standard that transforms the way commercial locations are evaluated.

Scenario Studio

In this demo we will show how to build custom global, U.S., and U.S. regional scenarios using Scenario Studio, highlighting the transparency, audit, and productivity features embedded in the application.

Innovation Zone

Learn more about Moody's Analytics new solutions and thought leadership, including the following topics: CECL, Balance Sheet Forecasting, Macro Model Monitoring, and more!

4:45 Pm to 5:30 Pm

GUEST SPEAKER

Kent Smetters, Boettner Chair Professor, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School

5:30 Pm to 9:00 Pm

NETWORKING EVENT

8:30 am to 9:00 am

Registration

9:00 am to 10:00 am

Keynote Address

Approaching Ten Years: Economic Expansion, Commercial Real Estate, and What’s Next

This session will put the past decade’s performance of multifamily and commercial real estate in context. Where are specific property types in the current business cycle, and which one stands to be hit harder in a recession?  What are the longer term demographic, behavioral, and technological shifts that will drive market dynamics for specific sectors and geographies?

Victor Calanog, Chief Economist & Senior VP, REIS, Inc.

breakout sessions

10:00 AM TO 11:00 AM

Fiscal Policy Outlook: Certain Uncertainty

Less than two years from the 2020 presidential election, the outlook for fiscal policy at all levels of U.S. government can be summed up in one word: uncertainty. Budget battles in Washington are set to hit an election year fever pitch, muni market defaults are on the rise, and states and local governments are having to fend for themselves more than ever before. Will this level of fiscal uncertainty just be a drag on the pace of continued expansion, or will it prove the straw that breaks the camel’s back heading into the next economic downturn?

Speakers:

Dan White
Director - Economic Research,
Moody's Analytics

Bernard Yaros
Economist, Moody's Analytics

State Natural Rates of Unemployment

As the U.S. economy is motoring past full employment, we take a look at labor market capacity at the U.S. regional level discussing simple natural unemployment rate estimates for all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. In early 2019 most U.S. states are either in expansion or recovery, unemployment is near historical lows in many areas, and wage pressures have been mounting. This image is mirrored broadly at the state level, although regional patterns can vary depending on demographics and industrial composition.

Speaker:

Martin Wurm
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

Struggling Places & Demographic Decline

Parts of the U.S. count among the richest, most educated economies in the world, while others are struggling with a variety of socioeconomic problems. Today’s diverging economic fortunes are exacerbated by such demographic challenges as slowing population growth, stagnation in the prime-age working population and an aging population.  This session will focus on the regions that are being left behind and what the future holds for these areas.

Speaker:

Sophia Koropeckyj
Managing Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

11:00 am to 11:30 am

Break — Demo stations OPEN

Demo Stations: Coming soon!

11:30 AM TO 12:30 PM

Financial Market Vulnerabilities: Evaluating the Exposures

The financial system influences the economy through a variety of channels. This presentation will focus on changing risks from corporate leverage, sovereign balance sheets, the U.S. bond market, derivatives markets and the migration away from LIBOR to SOFR. We will identify those vulnerabilities that pose the biggest near-term challenge to the economy and to map out how institutions and policies will evolve in response.

Speakers:

Damien Moore
Director - Economic Research,
Moody's Analytics

Ed Friedman
Director - Economic Research,
Moody's Analytics

Data Driven Techniques for Defining Neighborhoods

As big data sets proliferate, more attention is being paid to smaller units of analysis.  In housing markets, the smallest unit of analysis is the neighborhood, which can be defined a cluster of contiguous and similar residential properties. In this session, we compare and contrast two data driven techniques to generate neighborhood boundaries in Philadelphia County, PA and present results.

Speaker:

Kwame Donaldson
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

U.S. Auto Industry Outlook: Will the Good Times Keep Rolling?

In this talk we will assess the recent performance of the auto industry in terms of credit performance, vehicle value retention and origination. Although defaults have been elevated of late, we will demonstrate that the industry has taken clear steps to improve the credit quality of the auto loan and lease populations.  Valuations, meanwhile, have been solid with most strength coming from the compact and midsize traditional car markets.

Speaker:

Tony Hughes                      

Managing Director - Economist,
Moody's Analytics

12:00 Pm to 1:15 Pm

LUNCH/LUNCH AND LEARN ROUNDTABLES

1:15 pM TO 2:15 PM

What Climate Change Means for Global Economy

In this session we explore the compounding effects global economic implications of climate change. We find that the varying economic implications create different incentives for countries to mitigate climate change.

Speaker:

Chris Lafakis
Director - Economic Research,
Moody's Analytics

Immigration's Role in Shaping the Labor Force

Immigration’s impact on the broader economy is of growing importance as demographic change in the U.S. increasingly shapes the labor force. A renewed emphasis on immigration could play a key role in mitigating those changes and propelling economic growth in the coming decade.

Speaker:

Dante DeAntonio
Assistant Director - Economist,
Moody's Analytics

Emerging Market Risk: Beyond Manias, Panics, and Crashes

Increased global trade has put a spotlight on emerging markets. Risk in these regions stem from long histories that have influenced countries political, financial and economic policies. Some countries have learned from past mistakes, while others are doomed to repeat them. In general, financial and economic policy risks have eased in the past decades, but the political landscape seems more volatile.

Speakers:

Eric Gaus
Assistant Director - Economist,
Moody's Analytics

Jesse Rogers
Economist, Moody's Analytics

2:15 Pm to 2:30 Pm

Break — Demo stations OPEN

Demo Stations: Coming soon!

2:30 Pm to 3:30 Pm

ECONOMIC UPDATE

Regional Economic Fault Lines

Regional economies across the U.S. are maturing as labor markets tighten, wages rise and household balance sheets stabilize. Rising costs along the coasts are pushing economic growth out into second and third tier metro areas where costs are lower. The greatest threats to continued expansion stem from exogenous forces like a fiscal or monetary policy misstep or recession or financial crisis abroad.

Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

3:30 Pm to 4:15 Pm

wrap-up session

Having seen the data and heard all of the analysis, we’ll summarize the fissures and fault lines in the economy and address the question of how best to position ourselves to mitigate risks and take advantage of opportunities. We will provide the key takeaways from the conference sessions that attendees can take back to their organization.

Cris deRitis PhD, Senior Director - Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics

Top of Agenda

Conference Fees

One Day

$1,095

Register now

Two Days

$1,895

Register now

Venue

Chase Center

815 justison Street
wilmington DE 19801
302.425.3929

website

The Chase Center on the Riverfront has a proud and unique heritage. Originally a shipbuilding facility during World War II, it later became the First USA Riverfront Arts Center, hosting world-class exhibitions. In 2005, it transitioned to a multipurpose special events facility, and was renamed Chase Center on the Riverfront.

A key feature of the Chase Center is its direct connection to the luxurious 180-room Westin Wilmington Hotel, which offers extra convenience for event attendees. The center and hotel are both within walking distance of excellent riverfront restaurants, museums, and more!
HEATHER ELY
+1.610.235.5103

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