Economic Outlook Conference 2019

“Fissures & FaultLines”

June 3-5, 2019

|

Wilmington, DE

register now

What are the risks and opportunities facing your business? Join us as we share forward-looking insights and best practices to help you effectively prepare for change.

Our Economic Outlook Conference will cover the impact of the global, macro and regional economies on housing, credit, auto, labor, real estate, fiscal policy and emerging markets, as well as critical issues such as CECL and climate change.

demo stations

Gain insight from Moody’s Analytics experts on key enhancements to our products and solutions.

Innovation zone

Come hear about Moody’s Analytics newest thought provoking concepts.

NETWORKING

Meet peers from over 75 financial institutions to exchange ideas and forge new relationships.

Keynote Speakers

Mark Zandi
Chief Economist

MOODY'S ANALYTICS

Kent Smetters
Boettner Chair Professor

Wharton — University of Pennsylvania

Victor Calanog
Chief Economist & Senior VP

REIS, INC.

Agenda

5:00 Pm to 7:00 Pm

WELCOME RECEPTION

8:00 am to 8:45 am

Registration

8:45 am to 9:00 am

WELCOME

Gus Harris, Executive Director, Moody's Analytics

9:00 am to 10:15 am

oPENING ADDRESs

Past it's prime

Despite a wobbly start to 2019, the US economy should hold firm assuming several geopolitical threats, including the Trump trade war and Brexit, play out reasonably gracefully. However, beyond this year, things looks to be more challenging.

Mark Zandi, Managing Director - Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics

10:15 am to 10:45 am

Break — Demo stations & I-ZONE OPEN

Demo Stations: Coming soon!

I-Zone: Coming soon!

10:15 am to 10:45 am

Demo Stations

Further details coming soon!

i-Zone

Further details coming soon!

breakout sessions

10:45 AM TO 11:45 AM

Tectonic Shifts in the Global Landscape

Political tensions and economic imbalances are putting pressure on the global economy. In the West, nationalism is eroding support for the free movement of goods and labor while hampering cooperative solutions on global policy challenges. Meanwhile, the changing structure of China’s economy, rising levels of debt in the region and shifts in monetary policy in the West all generate risks to the Asia-Pacific economy.

Speakers:

Steve Cochrane
Senior Director - Chief APAC Economist, Moody's Analytics

Mark Hopkins
Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Consumer Credit on the Sidelines

As the recession talks intensify despite mixed news about the economy, lenders and consumers alike brace their books as they wait on the sidelines.

Despite heightened suspense about the health of some of the consumer credit lines of business such as Auto, Student Loans, and Bankcards, there is really not

much to worry about in these sectors except for the credit performance of some sub-segments.

Speaker:

Deniz Tudor
Director - Consumer Credit Analytics,
Moody's Analytics

Housing Finance and the Effect on Multifamily

Speaker:

Kim Bentancourt                         
Director of Economics & Market Research, Fannie Mae

11:45 am to 12:45 pm

lUNCH & LEARN ROUNDTABLES

Information coming soon!

12:45 PM TO 1:45 PM

Over, Did the FED Say Over?

The Federal Reserve has pressed pause on this tightening cycle for the foreseeable future, and it almost sounded like the central bank believes it’s over, or very close to it. Though the Fed has pivoted, it is adapting to recent developments in financial markets, heightened downside risks to the outlook, and absence of inflationary pressures. Being patient and pausing this cycle within the range of estimates of the long-run neutral rate is appropriate, and could extend the life of this expansion. The Fed has killed its fair share of expansions but likely not this one. This session will discuss our expectations for the path of interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet, potential changes to the central bank’s policy frame work and their response if something goes wrong in the economy.

Speaker:

Ryan Sweet
Director - Real Time Economics, Moody's Analytics

CECL: Day 1 and Beyond

Our experts explore the potential impact of CECL on industry-wide reserves and factors that will affect results at the institution level. We also take a deep-dive into mortgages to provide insights how CECL will impact lending and pricing strategies.

Speakers:

David Fieldhouse
Director - Consumer Credit Analytics, Moody's Analytics

Shuying Shen
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

Changing Demographics and Its Impact on Housing

Speakers:

Barbara Byrne Denham Senior Economist, REIS    

1:45 Pm to 2:00 Pm

Break — Demo stations OPEN

Demo Stations: Coming soon!

2:00 PM TO 3:00 PM

Could the U.S. Economy's Key Support Crack?

Growth in consumer spending will continue to slow and there are many downside risks. This session will examine the current fundamentals for consumer spending and identify the key risks, including the labor market, more modest gains in household wealth and political risks. While counting the U.S. consumers out is a dangerous call, consumers will face weaker fundamentals going forward.

Speaker:

Scott Hoyt
Senior Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Captial Planning, CECL for Small Banks

The regulatory and accounting landscapes are in the midst of significant flux.  Though regulatory stress test requirements have been eased for small banks, the introduction of CECL means that these institutions need to increase their attention to analytical solutions.  In this presentation we will describe ways banks can adopt low cost, high power solutions to help them plan capital requirements.  We will also demonstrate a new approach to CECL calculation based on low-cost public data sources.

Speakers:

Tony Hughes
Managing Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Ed Young
Senior Director - Advisory Services, Moody's Analytics

Tech Disruption in CRE

Speaker: TBD

3:00 Pm to 3:30 Pm

Break — Demo stations & i-zone OPEN

Demo Stations: Coming soon!

I-Zone: Coming soon!

3:30 PM TO 4:30 PM

Housing Market: Keeping the Recovery in Ownership on the Rails

Speaker:

Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Leveraging IFRS 9 Learnings for CECL Implementation: Scenarios & Credit Models

This session will dive into the main challenges and learnings from IFRS 9; aiming to leverage the key takeaways to prepare for a successful CECL implementation. We will go through a list of technical topics where the overlap of the two accounting frameworks is most relevant: First, the use and severity of macroeconomic scenarios is a key area of industry debate. Second, the granularity and sophistication of credit loss models is also pivotal and will be discussed in great detail. Avoiding some of the mistakes from early IFRS 9 adoptions can be of great value to the success of our CECL journey.

Speaker:

Juan Licari
Managing Director - Chief Int'l Economist, Moody's Analytics

U.S. Government Policy Impact on CRE

Speaker:

Ryan Severino Chief Economist, JLL

4:30 Pm to 4:45 Pm

Break — Demo stations OPEN

Demo Stations: Coming soon!

4:45 Pm to 5:30 Pm

GUEST SPEAKER

Kent Smetters, Boettner Chair Professor, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School

5:30 Pm to 9:00 Pm

NETWORKING EVENT

8:30 am to 9:00 am

Registration

9:00 am to 10:00 am

Keynote Address

Approaching Ten Years: Economic Expansion, Commercial Real Estate, and What’s Next

This session will put the past decade’s performance of multifamily and commercial real estate in context. Where are specific property types in the current business cycle, and which one stands to be hit harder in a recession?  What are the longer term demographic, behavioral, and technological shifts that will drive market dynamics for specific sectors and geographies?

Victor Calanog, Chief Economist & Senior VP, REIS, Inc.

breakout sessions

10:00 AM TO 11:00 AM

Fiscal Policy Outlook: Certain Uncertainty

Less than two years from the 2020 presidential election, the outlook for fiscal policy at all levels of U.S. government can be summed up in one word: uncertainty. Budget battles in Washington are set to hit an election year fever pitch, muni market defaults are on the rise, and states and local governments are having to fend for themselves more than ever before. Will this level of fiscal uncertainty just be a drag on the pace of continued expansion, or will it prove the straw that breaks the camel’s back heading into the next economic downturn?

Speakers:

Dan White
Director - Economic Research,
Moody's Analytics

Bernard Yaros
Economist, Moody's Analytics

State Natural Rates of Unemployment

As the U.S. economy is motoring past full employment, we take a look at labor market capacity at the U.S. regional level discussing simple natural unemployment rate estimates for all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. In early 2019 most U.S. states are either in expansion or recovery, unemployment is near historical lows in many areas, and wage pressures have been mounting. This image is mirrored broadly at the state level, although regional patterns can vary depending on demographics and industrial composition.

Speaker:

Martin Wurm
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

Struggling Places & Demographic Decline

Speaker:

Adam Ozimek
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

11:00 am to 11:30 am

Break — Demo stations & I-ZONE OPEN

Demo Stations: Coming soon!

I-Zone: Coming soon!

11:30 AM TO 12:30 PM

Financial Market Vulnerabilities: Evaluating the Exposures

Speakers:

Damien Moore
Director - Economic Research,
Moody's Analytics

Ed Friedman
Director - Economic Research,
Moody's Analytics

Forecasting Neighborhood Gentrification

Speaker:

Kwame Donaldson
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

U.S. Auto Industry Outlook: Will the Good Times Keep Rolling?

Speaker:

Michael Vogan
Assistant Director - Economist,
Moody's Analytics

12:00 Pm to 1:15 Pm

LUNCH/LUNCH AND LEARN ROUNDTABLES

1:15 pM TO 2:15 PM

What Climate Change Means for Global Economy

Speaker:

Chris Lafakis
Director - Economic Research,
Moody's Analytics

Immigration's Role in Shaping the Labor Force

Immigration’s impact on the broader economy is of growing importance as demographic change in the U.S. increasingly shapes the labor force. A renewed emphasis on immigration could play a key role in mitigating those changes and propelling economic growth in the coming decade.

Speaker:

Dante DeAntonio
Assistant Director - Economist,
Moody's Analytics

Emerging Market Risk: Beyond Manias, Panics, and Crashes

Increased global trade has put a spotlight on emerging markets. Risk in these regions stem from long histories that have influenced countries political, financial and economic policies. Some countries have learned from past mistakes, while others are doomed to repeat them. In general, financial and economic policy risks have eased in the past decades, but the political landscape seems more volatile.

Speakers:

Eric Gaus
Assistant Director - Economist,
Moody's Analytics

Jesse Rogers
Economist, Moody's Analytics

2:15 Pm to 2:30 Pm

Break — Demo stations OPEN

Demo Stations: Coming soon!

2:30 Pm to 3:30 Pm

ECONOMIC UPDATE

Regional Economic Fault Lines

Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics & Adam Kamins, Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

2:30 Pm to 3:30 Pm

ECONOMIC UPDATE

Adam Kamins, Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

3:30 Pm to 4:15 am

wrap-up session

Top of Agenda

Conference Fees

One Day

$1,095

Register now

Two Days

$1,895

Register now

Venue

Chase Center

815 justison Street
wilmington DE 19801
302.425.3929

website

The Chase Center on the Riverfront has a proud and unique heritage. Originally a shipbuilding facility during World War II, it later became the First USA Riverfront Arts Center, hosting world-class exhibitions. In 2005, it transitioned to a multipurpose special events facility, and was renamed Chase Center on the Riverfront.

A key feature of the Chase Center is its direct connection to the luxurious 180-room Westin Wilmington Hotel, which offers extra convenience for event attendees. The center and hotel are both within walking distance of excellent riverfront restaurants, museums, and more!

Hotel

The Westin Wilmington

818 shipyard drive
wilmington DE 19801
302.654.2900

website

Preferred Room Rate: $199/night (plus taxes and fees). The discounted room rate is available two days before and after the conference (pending room availability).
HEATHER ELY
+1.610.235.5103

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